Tongkun (601233): Layout upwards to create an integrated polyester filament leader
Core point of view: The company is a leader in the polyester filament industry, with an integrated layout to create a pyramid-shaped industrial chain.
According to the company’s 18-year annual report and China Fiber Net News, the company is the largest polyester filament manufacturer in China, with a polyester polymerization capacity of about 520 tons, a polyester filament capacity of nearly 570 tons, a PTA capacity of about 400 mm, and a polyester filamentIts domestic market share exceeds 16%, and its global share is close to 11%.
The company has initially laid out upstream to build a pyramid-shaped industrial chain.
2019 PTA usher in a period of profit improvement.
According to China Fiber Network Information, 2018-19 is a period of slow production capacity for the PTA industry. No nominal capacity was put into operation in 2018. In 2019, there will be only Fuhua 225 and Sichuan Shengda’s 120 volume power generation contribution. Xinfengming and HengliUnder the situation that the device needs to be put into production at the end and the demand is steadily increasing, the industry supply and demand pattern has further improved.
2019 is the peak period for domestic PX production. As the cost of the PTA industry declines, supply and demand improve, and profitability improves.
Zhejiang Petrochemical contributed 20% of its equity, and its integrated layout continued to improve.
According to the company’s 18-year annual report, the company has a 20% stake in ZPEC, and is expected to reach production this year. At that time, the company will realize the complete industrial chain of crude oil-PX-PTA-polyester filaments, and its profitability will be improved compared to the recent period.
At the same time, the production of refining and chemical projects will bring investment income to the company.
The 19-21 results were 1.
44 yuan / share, 1.
89 yuan / share, 2.
11 yuan / share.
Taking into account the company’s production capacity and the implementation schedule of Zhejiang Petrochemical Project.
We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 2019-21.
89 and 2.
11 yuan / share, corresponding to the current price market value is estimated to be 10.
If the company’s 19 years of convertible bonds are considered, the company’s pro forma EPS for the years 19-21 will be 1.
82 yuan / share, corresponding to the current price of PE 11.
With reference to comparable companies’ 19-year average consensus PE estimates, considering the company ‘s polyester filament industry leader and matching upstream and downstream production capacity 杭州桑拿网 matching, we give 12 times PE estimates for 2019 performance, a reasonable value of 17.
28 yuan / share, give the company a “buy” rating.
Risks suggest that a sharp drop in international oil prices will cause the company to lose inventory; reduced filament demand will affect the company’s performance; Zhejiang Petrochemical’s low production schedule is expected to affect the company’s performance